Thinking Realistically

So… oil prices (per barrel) are heading for $45.00, ouch.

Except that even $45.00 is unabashedly unrealistic.

Matthew Simmons, an energy investment banker (and an advisor to Bush-Cheney) says:

“Oil is far too cheap at the moment. … The figure I’d use is around $182 a barrel. We need to price oil realistically to control its demand. That is because global production is peaking.”

In other words, oil prices should be four times what they currently are.

What fun.

(BBC: “Is the world’s oil running out fast?” by Adam Porter [June 7, 2004]; via TSTW)

by on August 19, 2004  •  Permalink
Posted by Ben on August 19, 2004

https://www.swordbilled.com/thinking-realistically/

Lies, All Lies

I’m nothing like a regular reader of the Economist, but this article provides an interesting foray into the search for truth, something I hold near and dear to my heart. The article explores the checkered past of so-called “lie detectors” (polygraphs and their ilk) and delves into the future of the field, providing summaries of some up-and-coming technology.

Also of interest, the Economist article references a NAS book on lie detectors, the full text of which is available online. Admittedly, it’s not quite the same as reading a book in the flesh, but it’s a lot of information for explorin’ if you’re interested.

Another related resource I’ve stumbled across a while back is another online book, Pathological Lying, Accusation, and Swindling by William and Mary Healy, which has some case studies of, yes, pathological liars.

Also, keep yer eyes peeled, for I have a couple other lie-related morsels of info I’m going to be sharing in the near future. “Lie-related morsels,” as in, morsels relating to the detection of lies; not actual lies, in case you were wondering.

(Economist: “Making windows in men’s souls” [July 8, 2004]; National Academies Press: “The Polygraph and Lie Detection” by BCSSE & CNSTAT [2003])

by on August 17, 2004  •  Permalink
Posted by Ben on August 17, 2004

https://www.swordbilled.com/lies-all-lies/

Traffic Paradox

autobahnThere’s a new, highly sophisticated model for traffic prediction on the block. Which would be helpful, if you happen to be driving the Autobahn. What’s interesting is that the new model predicts traffic with a high degree of accuracy, but may well make itself irrelevant as more and more people look to its predictions, and change their plans accordingly. While the model accurately predicts traffic density at a rate of 90% or better, the net result of 300,000+ people checking the forecasts daily may well undermine the model’s track record.

Another interesting tidbit from the article: what this new model does that older, much less accurate models did not, is base itself in part on bad driving. The new model (developed by engineers at the University of Duisburg-Essen in Germany) takes into account aggressive driving styles: drivers getting too close to the cars in front of them and being forced to break, drivers changing lanes too quickly, etc. The result of which is a highly accurate model.

(NewScientist: “Bad driving the secret to traffic forecasts,” by Justin Mullins [July 2, 2004])

by on August 17, 2004  •  Permalink
Posted by Ben on August 17, 2004

https://www.swordbilled.com/traffic-paradox/

Headlines re: Charley

NYTimes:

Federal Relief Is Distributed in Florida Areas Hit by Storm

Independent:

Bush accused of exploiting hurricane in Florida as he offers aid to disaster area

WaPo:

Fla. Begins Recovery From Deadly Storm

Stern:

Charley als Wahlkampfhelfer [~Charley as campaign-helper]

LATimes:

Bush Promises Quick Hurricane Relief

Obviously this isn’t more than a cursory overview of some headlines, and nothing like a comprehensive survey or anything like that; but it’s an interesting contrast, nonetheless, w/ non-US papers pointing out the obvious and US papers feigning (or striving for?) some kind of objectivity.

Not that either approach is right or wrong. I’m just saying: it’s interesting.

by on August 16, 2004  •  Permalink
Posted by Ben on August 16, 2004

https://www.swordbilled.com/headlines/

Mad Cow

I’m always interested in new developments in the whole mad cow thing, so imagine my delight when I discovered that the New York Times has a whole section dedicated to BSE articles! Wow!

(For the non-registration-inclined, here’s a no-reg link to the latest NYT mad cow article.)

(via NYT: “Study Lends Support to Mad Cow Theory,” by Sandra Blakesless [July 30, 2004] – w/ many thanks to the NYT Links Generator)

by on August 16, 2004  •  Permalink
Posted by Ben on August 16, 2004

https://www.swordbilled.com/mad-cow/

Fun with the NSA

nsa crypto memorialOkay so you knew the NSA was that nifty übersecret government agency responsible for code-breakin’ and the like, but did you know that they have all sorts of useful (well, curious) public information and whatnot on their site? Like a photo gallery, for instance, in case you were wondering what an RU-8D aircraft looked like, or if you were itchin for a glimpse of the hallowed NSA sign.

And, as they say: But wait, there’s more!

There’s a section of declassified “historical” documents, stuff ranging from a National Enquirer story (though it’s unclear how exactly a National Enquirer article was “classified”) to a mysterious 1 page overview of a 5 volume, 500 page French government study of UFOs.

The NSA also has a handy page where you can submit a Freedom of Information Act request online, without any of the hassle of paper and whatnot.

Now, wasn’t that fun?

by on August 15, 2004  •  Permalink
Posted by Ben on August 15, 2004

https://www.swordbilled.com/fun-with-the-nsa/

How to make a duct tape body double

cartoon excerpt

There’s more, of course. How to make a duct tape body double and other helpful hints at Howtoons.

(via MeFi)

by on August 13, 2004  •  Permalink
Posted by Ben on August 13, 2004

https://www.swordbilled.com/how-to-make-a-duct-tape-body-double/

More freak accidents

In the same vein as this earlier post on a freak vending machine accident, here is freak portable toilet accident #1 (still waiting for word of #2):

A portable toilet exploded Tuesday after a man who was inside it lit a cigarette. Emergency workers said the man was not severely injured and drove himself to Clay-Battelle Community Health Center. … The explosion, which occurred in Blacksville, resulted from a buildup of methane gas inside the portable toilet. The methane did not “take too kindly” to the lit cigarette, said a spokeswoman for Monongalia Emergency Medical Services.

by on August 12, 2004  •  Permalink
Posted by Ben on August 12, 2004

https://www.swordbilled.com/more-freak-accidents/

Scan this

non-wand terahertz scannerUp-and-coming terahertz scanners would allow security staff to see people as if naked; more up-and-coming yet is a handheld terahertz scanner, which, rather than producing an on-screen image (and maybe making people uncomfortable, what with them being seen au naturel on some security screen for guards to snicker and chuckle at), would simply operate on a red-light/green-light basis: red-light bad, green-light good.

(NewScientist: “Handheld terahertz wand to unmask terrorists,” by Duncan Graham-Rowe [July 12, 2004]; image from Jefferson Lab Free-Electron Laser Program page)

by on August 12, 2004  •  Permalink
Posted by Ben on August 12, 2004

https://www.swordbilled.com/scan-this/

Uncommon knowledge about a moose

Is it used with a computer? I say Probably.1
Does it fit in your wallet? I say Probably.2
Does it squeak? I say Probably.
Do you chew it? I say Yes.3
Does it come in pairs? I say Probably.4
Is it a part of something larger? I say Probably.
Do you eat it with Thanksgiving dinner? I say Probably.
Can it be washed? I say Doubtful.5
Does it have big ears? I say Yes.
Is it delicious? I say Probably.6
Is it used for hunting? I say Yes.
Is it carbon-based? I say Doubtful.
Does it have a title? I say Probably.7
Is it spontaneous? I say Probably.
Does it like to clean itself? I say No.8
Was it used over 100 years ago? I say No.

More helpful information via 20Q. I honestly didn’t know that a moose could fit in your wallet, or that it’s something you’d probably eat with Thanksgiving dinner. I feel so stupid.

Notes:

  1. I’m guessing this really means mouse. Moose, mouse, it’s easy to confuse the two. I do it all the time.
  2. Really?
  3. Moose chew. Now there’s a brilliant idea if ever there was one. Actually, there is something called Moose Munch, which is in fact quite tasty. And I guess not that far-removed from Moose Chew.
  4. Okay.
  5. Yeah, okay, I wouldn’t want to wash a moose either.
  6. I agree completely.
  7. Mr. Moose? Dr. Moose?
  8. Okay, I don’t have a problem with this one, either.
by on August 11, 2004  •  Permalink
Posted by Ben on August 11, 2004

https://www.swordbilled.com/uncommon-knowledge-about-a-moose/

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